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The 2015 Academy Awards: Predictions & Exclusions

16/2/2015

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by Joyless Staff

This Sunday marks the 87th Academy Awards, an event so hyped that it's hard for even the least involved cinephile to ignore. (As noted in the New York Times this past weekend, 43 million Americans watched the Oscars last year
—seven times the number of people that saw Best Picture winner 12 Years a Slave.)  Below are our forecasts for who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated. Notably underrepresented this year are Selma, Gone Girl, Inherent Vice, and Under the Skin, making for a monochromatic group of acting nominees and an all-male set of directorial and screenwriting nominees—a problem endemic in both Hollywood and the Academy. If there can be any silver lining, it is that Wes Anderson and Richard Linklater, two filmmakers who have previously only been nominated for screenwriting awards, may be taking home more well-deserved Oscars than they can carry.
Picture
Best Picture

Nominees:
American Sniper; Boyhood; Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); The Grand Budapest Hotel; The Imitation Game; Selma; The Theory of Everything; Whiplash

Awards season is usually bookended by the last summer action blockbuster and the first back-of-the-shelf January flop, but this year two of the frontrunners for Best Picture are already out on DVD. It's no surprise that Boyhood, the 12-years-in-the-making film about memory and growing up, should garner some awards-circuit praise, but the fact that The Grand Budapest Hotel (released way back in March) got a nomination is both unusual and impressive. Maybe the Academy will finally start to give awards to the best films instead of the best marketed ones. 


The field of competitors was expanded in 2009 to a possible ten films, which makes this year's eight nominations all the stranger, with notable exclusions of Gone Girl and Inherent Vice. Still, the ten-film system seems to only exist to allow more DVDs to be sold with the phrase "nominated for an Academy Award" stamped on the back, since most of the nominated films have no chance of winning the golden statuette. Typical Academy fodder The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are unlikely winners in a year this stacked with legitimate, interesting work, and Whiplash is just as unlikely, since it is director Damien Chazelle's first feature of note. (Too many Academy voters seem to see these awards as cumulative appreciation for a career-worth of work.) Selma and American Sniper may both be deemed too political to compete, and Selma's complete lack of nominations in other categories foreshadows that unfortunate outcome.

While Birdman is a superbly-acted and beautifully choreographed film and Anderson's The Grand Budapest Hotel is the distillation of everything good in his filmic canon, the awards season winds are blowing toward the most deserving offering. Each of these three contenders could win Best Picture in another year, but here only one of them can take it home, and Boyhood is one of the most poignant, interesting films of the century. Still, the  wackiest outcome would be seeing Anderson's crew take the stage at the end of the night. If it doesn't happen this year—pitted against one of the most competitive core of nominees in recent memory—we can look forward to the eventuality of Wes Anderson and his grizzled entourage unicycling their way up to the podium to deliver an incomprehensible speech. --Jeremy Meckler


WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN

SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Matt Levine
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Under the Skin
Jeremy Meckler
Boyhood
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Michael Montag
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Immigrant
Lee Purvey
Boyhood
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Kathie Smith
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Under the Skin
Geoffrey Stueven
Boyhood
Selma
Inherent Vice
Eliza Summerlin
Boyhood
Birdman
Under the Skin
Peter Valelly
Boyhood
Boyhood
Inherent Vice

Picture
Best Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher; Bradley Cooper, American Sniper; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game; Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

While he has toed the line of drama on several previous occasions (Little Miss Sunshine, The 40-Year-Old Virgin), longtime Apatow affiliate and network comedy darling Steve Carell's real introduction to the fancy business of "serious acting" came in this year's Foxcatcher
--and quite the introduction it was. Carrell's chilling transformation into John du Pont, a lonely, manipulative millionaire whose sponsorship of several elite American wrestlers enters a spiral of paranoia and violence, helped make Foxcatcher the most emotionally riveting film of the year. Unfortunately, "chilling" isn't exactly what Academy voters typically go for, so expect Eddie Redmayne's inspirational turn as Stephen Hawking to get the Oscar nod. In The Theory of Everything, Redmayne performs Hawking’s gradual physical decline due to motor neuron disease with a painful meticulousness. More impressive still is the sustained gravity and emotional nuance Redmayne is able to communicate during the final chapters of this staged near-paralysis. Bradley Cooper and Michael Keaton's effective performances in otherwise underwhelming films could make either one an acceptable spoiler, leaving Benedict Cumberbatch’s work in The Imitation Game as by far the weakest in the five-man field (and about which, the less said the better). --Lee Purvey


WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Eddie Redmayne
Eddie Redmayne
David Oyewolo,
Selma;
Ben Affleck,
Gone Girl
Matt Levine
Michael Keaton
Michael Keaton
Jake Gyllenhall,
Nightcrawler
Jeremy Meckler
Eddie Redmayne
Michael Keaton
Joaquin Phoenix,
Inherent Vice
Michael Montag
Michael Keaton
Michael Keaton
Joaquin Phoenix,
Inherent Vice;
Joaquin Phoenix,
The Immigrant
Lee Purvey
Eddie Redmayne
Steve Carell
Ralph Fiennes,
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Kathie Smith
Michael Keaton
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Geoffrey Stueven
Michael Keaton
Michael Keaton
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Eliza Summerlin
Eddie Redmayne
Steve Carell
Timothy Spall,
Mr. Turner
Peter Valelly
Steve Carell
Michael Keaton
Ralph Fiennes,
The Grand Budapest Hotel

Picture
Best Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night; Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything; Julianne Moore, Still Alice; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Considering almost every Best Actress award to date has gone to Julianne Moore for Still Alice (the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, National Board of Review, etc.), there’s little reason to think that will change on Oscar night—especially since it would function as an unofficial honorary Oscar to Moore, who has never won the award. Too bad the film itself is as bland as Moore’s performance is powerful. Every other film in this category fares better, relying heavily on their lead actress’ performance in different ways. While Two Days, One Night observes its protagonist with resolute focus, so much of the movie’s power depends on ensemble acting that Cotillard’s subtle performance might be too selfless for the Academy. Similarly, as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything, Felicity Jones shares the screen with Best Actor contender Eddie Redmayne, and although Jones makes Jane Hawking a strong, unique character (arguably as compelling as Stephen Hawking himself), the Oscars usually gravitate towards the showier performances.

Speaking of "showier," my initial hunch for the category this year was that Rosamund Pike, as the shapeshifting Amazing Amy in Gone Girl, would steal the award. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it’s undeniably impressive how Pike recalibrates Amy to whatever suits David Fincher’s zigzagging mystery—the character might be a cypher but she’s hypnotic to watch. Even more dynamic, though (probably because she’s approached more compassionately), is Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed in Wild. In what has to be the performance of her career, Witherspoon explores her character’s lowest depths and highest moments of self-discovery with remarkable dexterity, exuding a volatile toughness along with the sense of humor we've come to expect from the actress. 
--Matt Levine

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Julianne Moore
Rosamund Pike
Scarlett Johansson,
Under the Skin
Matt Levine
Julianne Moore
Reese Witherspoon
Tilda Swinton,
Only Lovers Left Alive
Jeremy Meckler
Julianne Moore
Rosamund Pike
Scarlett Johansson,
Under the Skin
Michael Montag
Julianne Moore
Marion Cotillard
Agata Trzebuchowska,
Ida
Lee Purvey
Julianne Moore
Julianne Moore
Scarlett Johansson, Under the Skin
Kathie Smith
Julianne Moore
Marion Cotillard
Jenny Slate,
Obvious Child
;
Stacy Martin, Nymphomaniac Vol. 1

Geoffrey Stueven
Julianne Moore
Marion Cotillard
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Eliza Summerlin
Julianne Moore
Julianne Moore
Scarlett Johannson,
Under the Skin
Peter Valelly
Reese Witherspoon
Rosamund Pike
Essie Davis,
The Babadook

Picture
Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:
Robert Duvall, The Judge; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood; Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher; J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

It seems this time around that the Best Supporting Actor category acts as a consolation prize for actors not lucky enough to be nominated for a Best Actor Oscar. The two strongest nominees—Ethan Hawke for Boyhood and J.K. Simmons for Whiplash—are certainly leads and frequently steal the spotlight of their films. Hawke brings comic relief, depth, and uncertainty to a character who is confused about how to best be a father to his kids. Simmons drives Whiplash as the maniacal music instructor who illustrates the allure and danger of perfection. It’s also telling that the “lead” for both these films (Ellar Coltrane for Boyhood, Miles Teller for Whiplash) didn’t receive a nomination for Best Actor. Though Edward Norton, the egotistical, explosive (literally) supporting actor of Birdman, and Mark Ruffalo, the successful, even-keeled big brother in Foxcatcher, both contribute solid performances, their chances at an Oscar are diminished by the inclusion of Simmons and Hawke, who belong in the Best Actor category. The Academy will probably rain a lot of love on the Boyhood enterprise, so expect a win for Hawke. Also, we are all still scratching our heads at Robert Duvall’s nomination for The Judge. Does anyone even remember that movie? --Eliza Summerlin

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
J.K. Simmons
J.K. Simmons
Riz Ahmed,
Nightcrawler
Matt Levine
J.K. Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Jeremy Renner,
The Immigrant
Jeremy Meckler
J.K. Simmons
Edward Norton
Josh Brolin,
Inherent Vice
Michael Montag
J.K. Simmons
Edward Norton
Jeremy Renner,
The Immigrant
Lee Purvey
J.K. Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Kathie Smith
J.K. Simmons
J.K. Simmons
Alfred Molina,
Love is Strange

Geoffrey Stueven
J.K. Simmons
Ethan Hawke
Bill Hader,
The Skeleton Twins

Eliza Summerlin
Ethan Hawke
J.K. Simmons
Peter Valelly
Edward Norton
Ethan Hawke

Picture
Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood; Laura Dern, Wild; Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game; Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

This one isn’t even close, nor should it be. As Olivia, the maternal anti-hero of Richard Linklater’s groundbreaking Boyhood, Patricia Arquette delivers the performance of her life and the performance of the year. Through economic woes and failed marriages, Arquette’s flawed but resilient character bends but never breaks under the weight of single parenthood and domestic violence. Olivia is brilliantly written by Linklater but, over the course of a dozen years, unforgettably brought to life by an actress whose real life struggles mirrored her character’s. In the feel-good story of this awards season, Arquette’s Oscar will replace on her mantle the only other honor of her nearly 30-year-long career: a CableACE award for a 1991 TV mini-series.

Aside from rookie nominee Emma Stone (now the second star of Superbad to be Oscar-nominated), the other women in this category are familiar to Academy voters. Laura Dern’s brief turn in Wild
--which to me was less heartrending than her turn in last summer’s The Fault in Our Stars--earned her a nod for the first time since 1992, with Keira Knightley also grinning for gold for the second time (2006). And then there’s Meryl. (Yawn.) For the nineteenth time. --Daniel Getahun

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Jessica Chastain,
A Most Violent Year
Matt Levine
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Marie Brassard,
Vic + Flo Saw a Bear
Jeremy Meckler
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Naomi Watts,
Birdman
Michael Montag
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Jessica Lange,
In Secret
Lee Purvey
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Katherine Waterson,
Inherent Vice
Kathie Smith
Patricia Arquette
Laura Dern
Uma Thurman, Nymphomaniac Vol. 1
Geoffrey Stueven
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Marion Bailey, Mr. Turner
Eliza Summerlin
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Tilda Swinton,
Snowpiercer
Peter Valelly
Patricia Arquette
Patricia Arquette
Rene Russo,
Nightcrawler

Picture
Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Big Hero 6; The Boxtrolls; How to Train Your Dragon 2; Song of the Sea; The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

The great animation house Studio Ghibli has long been seen as synonymous with the director Hayao Miyazaki, at least in the eyes of the Academy. Ghibli’s three previous nominations in this category have all gone to Miyazaki-directed features: Spirited Away (the winner in 2003), Howl’s Moving Castle, and The Wind Rises. But with Miyazaki’s recent retirement leading the studio into a hopefully temporary production halt, it’s important to remember the great work being done there by other filmmakers. The overlooked Secret World of Arrietty and From Up on Poppy Hill, concerned with the vulnerabilities of the natural world and history, respectively, honored Miyazaki’s long-standing thematic concerns and vision while being shepherded by other directors, and now The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
--by Isao Takahata, another indisputable auteur--is the studio’s most significant achievement since the film that won it the Oscar a dozen years ago. So the nomination is very welcome, but Kaguya will likely lose out to one of the other nominees, possibly Big Hero 6, the Disney feature with Japanese lineage. Trusted names like Laika (The Boxtrolls), Cartoon Saloon (Song of the Sea), and DreamWorks (How To Train Your Dragon 2) round out the nominees, making the absence of The Lego Movie, widely expected to crash the party, a bit less surprising. --Geoffrey Stueven

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
Jeremy Meckler
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Tale of Princess Kayuga
The Lego Movie
Michael Montag
How to Train Your Dragon 2
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Kathie Smith
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Tale of Princess Kayuga
Rocks in My Pocket
Geoffrey Stueven
Big Hero 6
The Tale of Princess Kayuga
Eliza Summerlin
The Boxtrolls
Song of the Sea
The Lego Movie
Peter Valelly
Big Hero 6
Big Hero 6
The Lego Movie

Picture
Best Cinematography

Nominees: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida; Dick Pope, Mr. Turner; Roger Deakins, Unbroken

Had the Academy nominated Robert Elswit’s psychedelic cinematography for Inherent Vice in Unbroken’s stead they would have selected the year’s most visually striking film
--which is not a knock against Roger Deakins, who may in fact be the most deserving of the award with twelve nominations under his belt. The expansive, sun-kissed imagery he concocted for Unbroken is certainly something to behold, but it’s not his finest work, which to my mind is The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. But seeing as the Academy has now cheated him out of eleven awards, he seems the most likely to win. While Lubezki’s roving, eavesdropping camerawork in Birdman certainly merits a nomination (and is also the picture’s greatest virtue), it’d be quite a surprise if he won two years in a row. The remaining nominees brought an astonishing visual distinction to their respective works: Yeoman’s stylized compositions in The Grand Budapest Hotel evoked the shimmering artifice of classical Hollywood, nicely complimenting the multiple period settings of the film. On the opposite side of the visual spectrum is Ida, with its off-centered framing and blustery lyricism. It’s a picture in which every image is imbued with an ashy poetry. Finally, there’s Pope’s elegant and appropriately painterly visual style for Mr. Turner. A pity each one of these DPs can’t walk away with an award.
--Michael Montag

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Birdman
Unbroken
Bradford Young,
Selma
Matt Levine
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Daniel Landin,
Under the Skin
Jeremy Meckler
Birdman
The Grand Budpest Hotel
Robert Elswit,
Inherent Vice
Michael Montag
Unbroken
Ida
Robert Elswit,
Inherent Vice
Lee Purvey
Birdman
Ida
Jeff Cronenweth,
Gone Girl

Kathie Smith
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Darius Khondji,   The Immigrant
Geoffrey Stueven
Birdman
Mr. Turner
Yorick Le Saux,
Only Lovers Left Alive
Eliza Summerlin
Mr. Turner
Birdman
Lyle Vincent, A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night
Peter Valelly
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Daniel Landin,
Under the Skin

Picture
Best Director

Nominees:
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Richard Linklater, Boyhood; Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game


More often than not, Best Director and Best Picture go hand in hand, with 20 of the last 25 Best Director Oscars matching the film that won Best Picture that year. Perhaps this year's glut of interestingly structured work provides a dilemma. Could this be another year (the fourth in a row) in which the Academy splits between the quality of the work and the artistry of its production? Best Director is rife for an upset. The three main contenders are the same ones vying for Best Picture: Linklater, Iñárritu, and Anderson. All three demonstrate incredible vision and talent, and all three are nominated for Screenplay Oscars as well, so this category is really anyone's game. Whether it's Anderson's formally freewheeling adventure tale, Iñárritu's one-shot choreographed indictment of Broadway, or Linklater's personal, 12-year production is anyone's guess. What's for certain is that the winner will be a man, as the only woman with a shot in this category--Ava DuVernay for Selma--was not even nominated. --Jeremy Meckler

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Richard Linklater
Richard Linklater
Ava DuVernay,
Selma

Matt Levine
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
Kelly Reichardt,
Night Moves
Jeremy Meckler
Richard Linklater
Richard Linklater
David Fincher,
Gone Girl;
Jonathan Glazer,
Under the Skin
Michael Montag
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Wes Anderson
Clint Eastwood,
American Sniper

Lee Purvey
Richard Linklater
Wes Anderson
David Fincher,
Gone Girl
Kathie Smith
Richard Linklater
Richard Linklater
Jonathan Glazer, Under the Skin
Geoffrey Stueven
Richard Linklater
Richard Linklater
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Eliza Summerlin
Richard Linklater
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Ava DuVernay, Selma
Peter Valelly
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Richard Linklater
Jonathan Glazer,
Under the Skin

Picture
Best Documentary Feature

Nominees:
CitizenFour; Finding Vivian Maier; Last Days in Vietnam; The Salt of the Earth; Virunga

2014 may mark the year documentaries went back to the arthouse; the year’s highest-grossing docs were Disney’s Bears and Dinesh D’Souza’s America. Ironically, some of the best and most popular documentaries
--The Overnighters, Rich Hill, Life Itself--    weren’t even nominated. I consider myself a doc enthusiast and even I’ve only seen three of the five nominees.

Two films showcase the work of photographers: renowned German filmmaker Wim Wenders celebrates the catalog of Sebastião Salgado in The Salt of the Earth, while Finding Vivian Meier explores not the photos but the enigmatic nature of the woman who shot them. Netflix’s dark horse Virunga is a gripping, can’t-make-this-stuff-up thriller about natural resource exploitation in a vulnerable African national park. My favorite, Last Days in Vietnam, offers what I described as “the rare trifecta of telling an untold story, offering probing insights for the present day, and entertaining in thrilling fashion.” So does Citizenfour, the likely winner about Edward Snowden marking the end of filmmaker Laura Poitras’ trilogy about life after 9/11 (of which I think The Oath is actually the most compelling). At times Snowden resembles a tinfoil hat-wearing conspiracy theorist, but the legitimacy of his evidence cannot be denied and its scope may never be fully known. 
--Daniel Getahun

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Life Itself
Jeremy Meckler
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Michael Montag
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Kathie Smith
Citizenfour
Citizenfour
Life Itself
Geoffrey Stueven
Citizenfour
Pulp: A Film About Life, Death & Supermarkets
Eliza Summerlin
Virunga
Finding Vivian Meyer
National Gallery
Peter Valelly
Finding Vivian Meyer
Citizenfour
The Unknown Known

Picture
Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees:
Ida; Leviathan; Tangerines; Timbuktu; Wild Tales

To call the slate of Best Foreign Film nominees gloomy or bleak is to miss the point that the sum and parts easily eclipse the craft and storytelling offered in the highly politicized Best Picture category. That is not to say the Best Foreign Film doesn’t have its own politics, but in a year where the Philippines would offer up Norte, the End of History (which, of course, did not get nominated) and Russia Leviathan, the state sponsored submission process seems erratically bold. Even more surprising is the nominating committee’s decision to exclude two Eurocentric slam-dunks from the short list (in the form of Paula van der Oest’s riveting Accused from the Netherlands and Ruben Ostlund’s powerful Force Majeure from Sweden) for Zaza Urushadadze’s Tangerines from Estonia and Abderrahmane Sissako’s Timbuktu from Mauritania—two films packed with volatile sociopolitical context. To find the most worthy winner in this incredible batch of films would be impossible. The gravity of the aforementioned Leviathan, Tangerines and Timbuktu make them solid choices, as does the dark carnivalesque storytelling of Wild Tales. But with the tide generally turning towards Pawel Pawlikowski’s masterful Ida, I’m more than willing to accept the critical mass behind that win. 

--Kathie Smith

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
Ida
Leviathan
Jeremy Meckler
Ida
Norte: The End of History
Michael Montag
Ida
Ida
Winter Sleep
Kathie Smith
Ida
Ida
Norte, the End of History;
Two Days, One Night;
Winter Sleep
Geoffrey Stueven
Ida
Eliza Summerlin
Leviathan
Ida
Force Majeure
Peter Valelly
Ida
Ida
Stranger by the Lake

Picture
Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., and Armando Bo, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance); Richard Linklater, Boyhood; E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher; Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, The Grand Budapest Hotel; Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

If Richard Linklater has the edge in nearly every other category, here is Wes Anderson's time to shine for the wacky story-within-a-story plot that contextualizes The Grand Budapest Hotel's scene-stealing central protagonist--a Victorian-era dandy philanderer living through the decay of European aristocratic authority. Anderson's script perfectly walks the line between his famous twee aesthetic and a gritty realist physicality that elevates this film above his earlier efforts. Other notable contenders here are Birdman and Boyhood, but this may be one of the few categories where voters decide that Boyhood has garnered enough acclaim. Notably, this is the only nomination for Nightcrawler, a film that almost certainly should have gotten Jake Gyllenhaal a nomination for best actor for his skin-crawling performance. --Jeremy Meckler

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Boyhood
Paul Webb,
Selma
Matt Levine
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jim Jarmusch,
Only Lovers Left Alive
Jeremy Meckler
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Paul Webb,
Selma
Michael Montag
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
James Gray and Ric Menello,
The Immigrant

Lee Purvey
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jonathan Nolan, Christopher Nolan,
Interstellar
Kathie Smith
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gillian Robespierre, Karen Main, Elisabeth Holm, Obvious Child
Geoffrey Stueven
Birdman
Boyhood
Ira Sachs, Mauricio Zacharias,
Love is Strange
Eliza Summerlin
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Jim Jarmusch, 
Only Lovers Left Alive
Peter Valelly
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Stephen Beresford, Pride

Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:
Jason Hall, American Sniper; Graham Moore, The Imitation Game; Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice; Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything; Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

In a year where critics’ year-end lists and award nominations have been dominated by feats of visual or conceptual daring like Boyhood and Birdman, the screenplay categories feel like a bit of a side note. Indeed, three of the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay are dreary biopic fodder--the exact sort of work the Academy can’t resist honoring, unfortunately. Of those, American Sniper seems likely to lose to one of the historically weightier contenders, although I go back and forth on whether The Imitation Game or The Theory of Everything is the more likely victor.

It’s a shame, then, that Inherent Vice is unlikely to walk away with an award. Miraculously, Paul Thomas Anderson’s script captures the vertiginous, madcap quality of author Thomas Pynchon’s heretofore unadaptable prose. That itself is a worthy achievement, but Anderson also lends an undertow of pathos to the film’s loopy plotting, yielding an emotional resonance that many of the year’s most heralded features lacked. And of course, this category’s big upset is the Academy’s refusal to recognize Gone Girl: ignoring Gillian Flynn’s immaculately paced adaptation of her own novel is perhaps an even more glaring oversight than the film’s puzzling omission from technical categories like cinematography and score.  --Peter Valelly

WILL WIN
SHOULD WIN
SNUBBED
Daniel Getahun
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber,
The Fault in our Stars
Matt Levine
The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
Nick Hornby,
Wild
Jeremy Meckler
Whiplash
Inherent Vice
Walter Campbell,
Under the Skin
Michael Montag
Whiplash
Inherent Vice
Charlie Stratton,
In Secret
Lee Purvey
Whiplash
Inherent Vice
Gillian Flynn,
Gone Girl
Kathie Smith
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Walter Campbell, Under the Skin
Geoffrey Stueven
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Christopher McQuarrie, Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth,
Edge of Tomorrow

Eliza Summerlin
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Gillian Flynn, 
Gone Girl
Peter Valelly
The Theory of Everything
Inherent Vice
Gillian Flynn, 
Gone Girl
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