by Joyless Staff
Yes, it's that time again. It seems only yesterday when we were bemoaning the win of Ben Affleck's Argo for Best Picture. But as we roll out the red carpet for the 86th Academy Awards this Sunday, things look far more promising. First and foremost, the Seth MacFarlane experiment is over and we can enjoy the much funnier and less misogynistic presentation of Ellen DeGeneres. Secondly, if the predictions of the Joyless Staff hold any water, we may see Steve McQueen at the end of the night holding a well-deserved award and we'll have to save our groans for another category (like Best Original Screenplay or Best Actress in a Leading Role.) Love 'em or hate 'em, the Oscars represent a grand celebration of movies that is hard, if not impossible, to ignore. Below we share our forecasts and opinions on who will win, who should win, and who was missing from the guest list altogether. In our perfect world, Brian De Palma, Harmony Korine, Shane Carruth, Andrew Bujalski, and Richard Linklater would all be sharing a pre-awards ceremony toast!
Yes, it's that time again. It seems only yesterday when we were bemoaning the win of Ben Affleck's Argo for Best Picture. But as we roll out the red carpet for the 86th Academy Awards this Sunday, things look far more promising. First and foremost, the Seth MacFarlane experiment is over and we can enjoy the much funnier and less misogynistic presentation of Ellen DeGeneres. Secondly, if the predictions of the Joyless Staff hold any water, we may see Steve McQueen at the end of the night holding a well-deserved award and we'll have to save our groans for another category (like Best Original Screenplay or Best Actress in a Leading Role.) Love 'em or hate 'em, the Oscars represent a grand celebration of movies that is hard, if not impossible, to ignore. Below we share our forecasts and opinions on who will win, who should win, and who was missing from the guest list altogether. In our perfect world, Brian De Palma, Harmony Korine, Shane Carruth, Andrew Bujalski, and Richard Linklater would all be sharing a pre-awards ceremony toast!
Best Picture
Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
Every year, at least one of the Best Picture nominees inspires righteous indignation in the hearts of cinephiles everywhere: last year, my scorn was spread evenly between Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Silver Linings Playbook. In 2014, the Academy actually selected a fair representation of what’s commonly perceived as cinematic quality—the only nominee here I would say is absolutely unworthy is Nebraska (maybe Oscar voters smirked at the film’s simplistic portrayal of the flyover states). Gravity’s frustrating inability to provide engaging characters or unique ideas to accompany its astonishing visuals also knocks it down a few pegs, but the movie’s accolades make sense as a tribute to its groundbreaking special effects. If it’s solid craftsmanship that the Best Picture nominees are supposed to signify, four of this year’s selections epitomize commendable moviemaking that never reaches (or, in some cases, approaches) greatness: American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena, and The Wolf of Wall Street are all entertaining excursions with sparks of excitement, but they also lack the unpredictability and complexity that distinguish the finest films. Surprisingly, American Hustle might be the strongest of these four—it deconstructs American greed and inequality with more subversive wit than The Wolf of Wall Street, all while disguising itself as a kinetic comedy. But if we’re talking the best films of the year, only three of this year’s nominees merit such esteem--Captain Phillips, Her, and 12 Years a Slave. Paul Greengrass’ incredibly intense action film treads an impressive balance between genre thrills and political subtext, with Tom Hanks’ finest performance in at least a decade to boot; but the other two are really in a class by themselves. It would be nice to see Spike Jonze’s effortlessly creative, singularly sincere romance for the digital age take home the Academy’s finest honor, but the film’s achievements might seem too subdued for industry voters. But if 12 Years a Slave is granted the golden statue (which seems the likeliest possibility), there could certainly be worse recipients: Steve McQueen’s unsettling document of American barbarism has the trappings of an inflated message movie, but its moral undertones and emotional resonance are infinitely more complex than the prestige pictures that usually attract the Academy’s adoration. --Matt Levine
Nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
Every year, at least one of the Best Picture nominees inspires righteous indignation in the hearts of cinephiles everywhere: last year, my scorn was spread evenly between Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Silver Linings Playbook. In 2014, the Academy actually selected a fair representation of what’s commonly perceived as cinematic quality—the only nominee here I would say is absolutely unworthy is Nebraska (maybe Oscar voters smirked at the film’s simplistic portrayal of the flyover states). Gravity’s frustrating inability to provide engaging characters or unique ideas to accompany its astonishing visuals also knocks it down a few pegs, but the movie’s accolades make sense as a tribute to its groundbreaking special effects. If it’s solid craftsmanship that the Best Picture nominees are supposed to signify, four of this year’s selections epitomize commendable moviemaking that never reaches (or, in some cases, approaches) greatness: American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Philomena, and The Wolf of Wall Street are all entertaining excursions with sparks of excitement, but they also lack the unpredictability and complexity that distinguish the finest films. Surprisingly, American Hustle might be the strongest of these four—it deconstructs American greed and inequality with more subversive wit than The Wolf of Wall Street, all while disguising itself as a kinetic comedy. But if we’re talking the best films of the year, only three of this year’s nominees merit such esteem--Captain Phillips, Her, and 12 Years a Slave. Paul Greengrass’ incredibly intense action film treads an impressive balance between genre thrills and political subtext, with Tom Hanks’ finest performance in at least a decade to boot; but the other two are really in a class by themselves. It would be nice to see Spike Jonze’s effortlessly creative, singularly sincere romance for the digital age take home the Academy’s finest honor, but the film’s achievements might seem too subdued for industry voters. But if 12 Years a Slave is granted the golden statue (which seems the likeliest possibility), there could certainly be worse recipients: Steve McQueen’s unsettling document of American barbarism has the trappings of an inflated message movie, but its moral undertones and emotional resonance are infinitely more complex than the prestige pictures that usually attract the Academy’s adoration. --Matt Levine
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Both Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey fell victim to a form of Method madness this past year, but each one still turned in a memorable performance. In American Hustle, Bale camouflages himself in velvet, tinted glasses, and a sizable gut that reveals a breezier side of the actor who is usually brooding and self-serious. McConaughey somehow surpasses his chilling performance in last year’s Killer Joe: as Ron Woodroof, he’s relentlessly gritty and freewheeling. While Bruce Dern has been acting in movies for years, he’s never spent much time in the limelight. An effective character actor, his most memorable moment in the movies is still as the psychotic Long Hair who savagely kills John Wayne in The Cowboys. In Nebraska, Dern does little more than a vociferous stumble—it’s a one-note performance. Back in 2004, Leonardo DiCaprio was cheated out of an Oscar when Jamie Foxx won for his slapstick parody of Ray Charles. DiCaprio’s Howard Hughes in The Aviator is still his greatest achievement; his latest collaboration with Scorsese is their worst. DiCaprio is a go-for-broke kind of actor and his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street is a broken mess. The same cannot be said of Chiwetel Ejiofor’s performance in 12 Years a Slave. It’s an intensely concentrated piece of acting and is staggeringly expansive in its emotional depth. --Michael Montag
Nominees: Christian Bale, American Hustle; Bruce Dern, Nebraska; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street; Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Both Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey fell victim to a form of Method madness this past year, but each one still turned in a memorable performance. In American Hustle, Bale camouflages himself in velvet, tinted glasses, and a sizable gut that reveals a breezier side of the actor who is usually brooding and self-serious. McConaughey somehow surpasses his chilling performance in last year’s Killer Joe: as Ron Woodroof, he’s relentlessly gritty and freewheeling. While Bruce Dern has been acting in movies for years, he’s never spent much time in the limelight. An effective character actor, his most memorable moment in the movies is still as the psychotic Long Hair who savagely kills John Wayne in The Cowboys. In Nebraska, Dern does little more than a vociferous stumble—it’s a one-note performance. Back in 2004, Leonardo DiCaprio was cheated out of an Oscar when Jamie Foxx won for his slapstick parody of Ray Charles. DiCaprio’s Howard Hughes in The Aviator is still his greatest achievement; his latest collaboration with Scorsese is their worst. DiCaprio is a go-for-broke kind of actor and his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street is a broken mess. The same cannot be said of Chiwetel Ejiofor’s performance in 12 Years a Slave. It’s an intensely concentrated piece of acting and is staggeringly expansive in its emotional depth. --Michael Montag
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Amy Adams, American Hustle; Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
In the most pedigreed but least competitive race among the major categories this year, Cate Blanchett will win her first Best Actress statue after two prior nominations in the category (she previously won for her supporting role in The Aviator). Her performance in Blue Jasmine isn’t her most impressive work, but it’s still a polished piece of acting as Blanchett imbues her character with a sense of vulnerability and desperation that almost dares the viewer to feel sympathetic to her plight. Blanchett’s pole position for the Oscar may say less her about her performance, however, and more about the lack of excitement for the other nominees, all of whom have been here before (in the case of Judi Dench and Meryl Streep, four and thirteen times in this category alone, respectively). Despite carrying American Hustle much more than either of her two nominated co-stars, Amy Adams likely didn’t leave enough of an impression to earn her first Oscar after four previous Supporting Actress nods. Sandra Bullock’s one-woman show in Gravity, meanwhile, is essentially a pattern of worry-panic-relief-repeat, but the effusive acclaim for her performance and inclusion here confirms her popularity within the Academy. If you’re considering an against-all-odds upset to break up your Oscar pool, Bullock may be an intriguing long shot. --Daniel Getahun
Nominees: Amy Adams, American Hustle; Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock, Gravity; Judi Dench, Philomena; Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
In the most pedigreed but least competitive race among the major categories this year, Cate Blanchett will win her first Best Actress statue after two prior nominations in the category (she previously won for her supporting role in The Aviator). Her performance in Blue Jasmine isn’t her most impressive work, but it’s still a polished piece of acting as Blanchett imbues her character with a sense of vulnerability and desperation that almost dares the viewer to feel sympathetic to her plight. Blanchett’s pole position for the Oscar may say less her about her performance, however, and more about the lack of excitement for the other nominees, all of whom have been here before (in the case of Judi Dench and Meryl Streep, four and thirteen times in this category alone, respectively). Despite carrying American Hustle much more than either of her two nominated co-stars, Amy Adams likely didn’t leave enough of an impression to earn her first Oscar after four previous Supporting Actress nods. Sandra Bullock’s one-woman show in Gravity, meanwhile, is essentially a pattern of worry-panic-relief-repeat, but the effusive acclaim for her performance and inclusion here confirms her popularity within the Academy. If you’re considering an against-all-odds upset to break up your Oscar pool, Bullock may be an intriguing long shot. --Daniel Getahun
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
This year's Supporting Actor category is a milestone in mediocrity, scraping the bottom of the barrel to pull nominees from 2013’s Oscar-bait films. Why is Bradley Cooper nominated for one of the blandest performances of his career? (His character in American Hustle rates lower than the one he played in The Hangover.) Jonah Hill's performance is equally lacking, a facsimile of the nuanced characters he’s played before; while his depraved displays are impressive—who knew Jonah had it in him?—the role pales in comparison to his more sublime work in comedies like Superbad or This is the End. Michael Fassbender's performance is more deserving but, though the role is electrifying at times, he never steals the screen from Chiwetel Ejiofor. And while it is exciting to see Barkhad Abdi nominated (the supporting categories could be an East African sweep if Lupita Nyog'o wins), it smacks of tokenism more than a real chance at the award. Abdi seems destined to go the way of Gabourey Sidibe. That leaves Jared Leto, whose performance as an HIV-positive, drug-addicted transvestite in Dallas Buyers Club pushes all the Academy’s buttons. While the character is an Oscar-bait cliché, Leto manages to add genuine grace and convey the complexity of addiction, making the otherwise saccharine film surprisingly watchable. --Jeremy Meckler
Nominees: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips; Bradley Cooper, American Hustle; Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street; Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
This year's Supporting Actor category is a milestone in mediocrity, scraping the bottom of the barrel to pull nominees from 2013’s Oscar-bait films. Why is Bradley Cooper nominated for one of the blandest performances of his career? (His character in American Hustle rates lower than the one he played in The Hangover.) Jonah Hill's performance is equally lacking, a facsimile of the nuanced characters he’s played before; while his depraved displays are impressive—who knew Jonah had it in him?—the role pales in comparison to his more sublime work in comedies like Superbad or This is the End. Michael Fassbender's performance is more deserving but, though the role is electrifying at times, he never steals the screen from Chiwetel Ejiofor. And while it is exciting to see Barkhad Abdi nominated (the supporting categories could be an East African sweep if Lupita Nyog'o wins), it smacks of tokenism more than a real chance at the award. Abdi seems destined to go the way of Gabourey Sidibe. That leaves Jared Leto, whose performance as an HIV-positive, drug-addicted transvestite in Dallas Buyers Club pushes all the Academy’s buttons. While the character is an Oscar-bait cliché, Leto manages to add genuine grace and convey the complexity of addiction, making the otherwise saccharine film surprisingly watchable. --Jeremy Meckler
| will win | should win | SNUBBED |
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; June Squibb, Nebraska; Julia Roberts, August, Osage County
This category has a history of rewarding promising newcomers (as when an 11-year-old Anna Paquin won for The Piano) and longshots (Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny), which means that it’s usually tougher to predict than the other acting Oscars. Hopefully this means that Lupita Nyong’o’s haunting work as the prize slave of a particularly cruel master will be recognized by the Academy, though her low-key naturalism will likely face an uphill battle against four much showier performances. The most flamboyant of these is Jennifer Lawrence’s against-type turn as a loudmouthed bimbo in American Hustle, in a performance that is undeniably entertaining even if it isn’t ultimately convincing. Given Lawrence’s popularity and the Academy’s wide-ranging support for her film, she appears to be the likely winner. The remaining three nominees do fine work but are let down by forces beyond their control, such as Woody Allen’s complete inability to write convincing working class characters, Meryl Streep’s overbearing mugging crowding out the other performances in August: Osage County, or Nebraska’s lame conviction that old ladies swearing is comedy gold. Lost in the shuffle is Suzanne Clement, who keeps the sex change dramedy Laurence Anyways grounded in genuine human emotion even when director Xavier Dolan is indulging his most extravagant stylistic whims. --Frank Olson
Nominees: Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle; Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave; June Squibb, Nebraska; Julia Roberts, August, Osage County
This category has a history of rewarding promising newcomers (as when an 11-year-old Anna Paquin won for The Piano) and longshots (Marisa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny), which means that it’s usually tougher to predict than the other acting Oscars. Hopefully this means that Lupita Nyong’o’s haunting work as the prize slave of a particularly cruel master will be recognized by the Academy, though her low-key naturalism will likely face an uphill battle against four much showier performances. The most flamboyant of these is Jennifer Lawrence’s against-type turn as a loudmouthed bimbo in American Hustle, in a performance that is undeniably entertaining even if it isn’t ultimately convincing. Given Lawrence’s popularity and the Academy’s wide-ranging support for her film, she appears to be the likely winner. The remaining three nominees do fine work but are let down by forces beyond their control, such as Woody Allen’s complete inability to write convincing working class characters, Meryl Streep’s overbearing mugging crowding out the other performances in August: Osage County, or Nebraska’s lame conviction that old ladies swearing is comedy gold. Lost in the shuffle is Suzanne Clement, who keeps the sex change dramedy Laurence Anyways grounded in genuine human emotion even when director Xavier Dolan is indulging his most extravagant stylistic whims. --Frank Olson
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Best Animated Feature is a recent addition to the Academy Awards, handing out its first Oscar to Shrek in 2002. It’s also a category that requires at least 16 qualifying titles to extend the nominations to five rather than three. As with most of the niche categories, the worthwhile story is not about the nominee that wins—in this case, Frozen seems to be a done deal—but the films elevated to a more prominent status as a result of their nomination. In this regard, the standout is the Belgian production Ernest & Celestine, a film that screened at Cannes and TIFF and will now be released in arthouse cinemas complete with an English dub featuring Forest Whitaker, Lauren Bacall, Paul Giamatti, William H. Macy, Nick Offerman and Jeffrey Wright. Hayao Miyazaki was nominated for the third time with The Wind Rises but, despite the film’s heartfelt artistry, it doesn’t stand a chance due to its WWII subject matter and various camps screaming simultaneously that it is pro- and anti-Japanese. A win for Frozen, somewhat ironically, will be a first in the Animated Feature category for Disney. --Kathie Smith
Nominees: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Best Animated Feature is a recent addition to the Academy Awards, handing out its first Oscar to Shrek in 2002. It’s also a category that requires at least 16 qualifying titles to extend the nominations to five rather than three. As with most of the niche categories, the worthwhile story is not about the nominee that wins—in this case, Frozen seems to be a done deal—but the films elevated to a more prominent status as a result of their nomination. In this regard, the standout is the Belgian production Ernest & Celestine, a film that screened at Cannes and TIFF and will now be released in arthouse cinemas complete with an English dub featuring Forest Whitaker, Lauren Bacall, Paul Giamatti, William H. Macy, Nick Offerman and Jeffrey Wright. Hayao Miyazaki was nominated for the third time with The Wind Rises but, despite the film’s heartfelt artistry, it doesn’t stand a chance due to its WWII subject matter and various camps screaming simultaneously that it is pro- and anti-Japanese. A win for Frozen, somewhat ironically, will be a first in the Animated Feature category for Disney. --Kathie Smith
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster; Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity; Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis; Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska; Roger Deakins, Prisoners
I absolutely think that the staggering visual experience and technical prowess of Gravity should be rewarded, but in an era where CGI and post-production have become so dominant it’s hard to know if the term “cinematography” still applies to the acrobatics of Gravity. Still, the film's grandeur and majesty can’t be chalked up solely to its visual effects team (although I don’t doubt it will deservedly clean up in that category), and surely it would look very different in the hands of a lesser talent than the incredible Emmanuel Lubezki. The brilliant Roger Deakins certainly deserves an award at some point, with eleven nominations under his belt and not a single win, so I wouldn’t count out his work in Prisoners either. But it’s hard to look at this list and not feel puzzled by the exclusion of some films that, while admittedly a little outre for the Academy, deserve recognition for their gorgeous, imaginative, at times brilliant cinematography—Carlos Reygadas’ Post Tenebras Lux, ravishingly framed by Alexis Zabé; and Harmony Korine's Spring Breakers, shot by Belgian DOP Benoît Debie. --Peter Valelly
Nominees: Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster; Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity; Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis; Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska; Roger Deakins, Prisoners
I absolutely think that the staggering visual experience and technical prowess of Gravity should be rewarded, but in an era where CGI and post-production have become so dominant it’s hard to know if the term “cinematography” still applies to the acrobatics of Gravity. Still, the film's grandeur and majesty can’t be chalked up solely to its visual effects team (although I don’t doubt it will deservedly clean up in that category), and surely it would look very different in the hands of a lesser talent than the incredible Emmanuel Lubezki. The brilliant Roger Deakins certainly deserves an award at some point, with eleven nominations under his belt and not a single win, so I wouldn’t count out his work in Prisoners either. But it’s hard to look at this list and not feel puzzled by the exclusion of some films that, while admittedly a little outre for the Academy, deserve recognition for their gorgeous, imaginative, at times brilliant cinematography—Carlos Reygadas’ Post Tenebras Lux, ravishingly framed by Alexis Zabé; and Harmony Korine's Spring Breakers, shot by Belgian DOP Benoît Debie. --Peter Valelly
| WILL WIN | SHOULD WIN | SNUBBED |
Best Director
Nominees: David O. Russell, American Hustle; Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Of the five nominees, only Martin Scorsese has won an Oscar for directing. His latest feature is evidence that he’s suffering from some kind of auteur syndrome. There’s supposed to be humor in grandiose stockbrokers acting like the gangsters from Goodfellas, but the shameless excess and self-reflexivity is embarrassing instead of sharp. More baffling is the fact that Scorsese, one of cinema’s greatest technicians, has directed a picture that’s visually flat. The same cannot be said of Gravity, one of the most beautiful films of 2013. Most of its 91 minutes are spellbinding, but the Hollywood ending reeks of Steven Spielberg. If an award existed for worst direction, it should go to Alexander Payne--Nebraska is a stark, mean-spirited caricature study. Stylistically, American Hustle is the complete opposite of Nebraska; David O. Russell’s film is a slick, bombastic ensemble piece that’s too in love with itself, yet it’s still entertaining. It’s derivative of Scorsese, but I’ll take it over Wolf any day. Steve McQueen may be the odd man out, since he has the least amount of directorial experience, but he shows more sophistication than the others. There’s a lyricism to 12 Years a Slave that’s unexpected. In the hands of a lesser director, this film could’ve resorted to heavy-handed sermonizing, but McQueen lets the overwhelming material speak for itself. --Michael Montag
Nominees: David O. Russell, American Hustle; Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Of the five nominees, only Martin Scorsese has won an Oscar for directing. His latest feature is evidence that he’s suffering from some kind of auteur syndrome. There’s supposed to be humor in grandiose stockbrokers acting like the gangsters from Goodfellas, but the shameless excess and self-reflexivity is embarrassing instead of sharp. More baffling is the fact that Scorsese, one of cinema’s greatest technicians, has directed a picture that’s visually flat. The same cannot be said of Gravity, one of the most beautiful films of 2013. Most of its 91 minutes are spellbinding, but the Hollywood ending reeks of Steven Spielberg. If an award existed for worst direction, it should go to Alexander Payne--Nebraska is a stark, mean-spirited caricature study. Stylistically, American Hustle is the complete opposite of Nebraska; David O. Russell’s film is a slick, bombastic ensemble piece that’s too in love with itself, yet it’s still entertaining. It’s derivative of Scorsese, but I’ll take it over Wolf any day. Steve McQueen may be the odd man out, since he has the least amount of directorial experience, but he shows more sophistication than the others. There’s a lyricism to 12 Years a Slave that’s unexpected. In the hands of a lesser director, this film could’ve resorted to heavy-handed sermonizing, but McQueen lets the overwhelming material speak for itself. --Michael Montag
| will win | should win | snubbed |
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet from Stardom
While three extraordinary documentaries from 2013 found their way into Oscar’s final five, two of the nominees are rather mediocre (especially in light of the exclusion of Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell). The most uplifting nominee in this traditionally dreary category is easily Morgan Neville’s 20 Feet from Stardom, which explores the humility exhibited and humiliation experienced by career backup singers, who light up the screen here as they’re finally given their due attention and praise. It’s a compelling examination of determination and self-doubt, and has forever changed the way I’ll hear “Gimme Shelter” by the Rolling Stones, among other songs. Meanwhile, Jehane Noujaim’s The Square distills the chaos of Egyptian domestic politics into a digestible summary that efficiently fills in the gaps in viewers’ understanding of the situation caused by endless yet empty American media coverage; the power of film to clarify complex issues hasn’t been this apparent since Inside Job explained the meaning of a credit default swap. Elsewhere, in Indonesia, Joshua Oppenheimer delves deep into the mind of murderers in the groundbreaking The Act of Killing, a surreal study of guilt and denial. Oppenheimer is one of the most articulate filmmakers I’ve ever heard at a screening, and when he accepts the Oscar here I’ll be eager to hear his speech. --Daniel Getahun
Nominees: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet from Stardom
While three extraordinary documentaries from 2013 found their way into Oscar’s final five, two of the nominees are rather mediocre (especially in light of the exclusion of Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell). The most uplifting nominee in this traditionally dreary category is easily Morgan Neville’s 20 Feet from Stardom, which explores the humility exhibited and humiliation experienced by career backup singers, who light up the screen here as they’re finally given their due attention and praise. It’s a compelling examination of determination and self-doubt, and has forever changed the way I’ll hear “Gimme Shelter” by the Rolling Stones, among other songs. Meanwhile, Jehane Noujaim’s The Square distills the chaos of Egyptian domestic politics into a digestible summary that efficiently fills in the gaps in viewers’ understanding of the situation caused by endless yet empty American media coverage; the power of film to clarify complex issues hasn’t been this apparent since Inside Job explained the meaning of a credit default swap. Elsewhere, in Indonesia, Joshua Oppenheimer delves deep into the mind of murderers in the groundbreaking The Act of Killing, a surreal study of guilt and denial. Oppenheimer is one of the most articulate filmmakers I’ve ever heard at a screening, and when he accepts the Oscar here I’ll be eager to hear his speech. --Daniel Getahun
| Will Win | Should Win | Snubbed |
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Hollywood has always understood that good and bad politics play an important role in profits, often opting for politics in absentia. As a result, the Academy has adopted a conciliatory policy allowing host countries to submit one film for Oscar consideration. This filter keeps potentially inflammatory issues at arms length, but, by catering to the whims of how countries would like to play their cultural cards, also precludes some of the more interesting films for reasons that are either obvious (This is Not a Film) or completely baffling (Pedro Almodóvar’s films from the last ten years). That being said, this year’s slate of foreign language films excitingly lacks a shoo-in winner like Amour or A Separation. And despite my nattering that the Academy likes to play it safe, three of the five tackle provocative subjects such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Omar), mob mentality towards an accused pedophile (The Hunt), and the Cambodian genocide (The Missing Picture). In the latter, Rithy Pahn (whose film S-21 served as an inspiration for The Act of Killing) continues his dissertation on the atrocities of the Khmer Rouge, but this time with emotional intensity and stylistic bravado. Ultimately, however, the “issue films” will politely be denied a win for the far more celebratory The Great Beauty. --Kathie Smith
Nominees: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Hollywood has always understood that good and bad politics play an important role in profits, often opting for politics in absentia. As a result, the Academy has adopted a conciliatory policy allowing host countries to submit one film for Oscar consideration. This filter keeps potentially inflammatory issues at arms length, but, by catering to the whims of how countries would like to play their cultural cards, also precludes some of the more interesting films for reasons that are either obvious (This is Not a Film) or completely baffling (Pedro Almodóvar’s films from the last ten years). That being said, this year’s slate of foreign language films excitingly lacks a shoo-in winner like Amour or A Separation. And despite my nattering that the Academy likes to play it safe, three of the five tackle provocative subjects such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Omar), mob mentality towards an accused pedophile (The Hunt), and the Cambodian genocide (The Missing Picture). In the latter, Rithy Pahn (whose film S-21 served as an inspiration for The Act of Killing) continues his dissertation on the atrocities of the Khmer Rouge, but this time with emotional intensity and stylistic bravado. Ultimately, however, the “issue films” will politely be denied a win for the far more celebratory The Great Beauty. --Kathie Smith
| Will Win | Should Win | Snubbed |
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight; Billy Ray, Captain Phillips; Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope, Philomena; John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave; Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Simply put, the screenwriting awards are where the weird movies hang out. Between adapted and original screenplay, this is the Oscar where great and quirky filmmakers have a home. Look at the list: Orson Welles won his only Oscar here, as did Pedro Almodóvar, Preston Sturges, and Mel Brooks. “Cool” movies that didn’t stand a chance anywhere else take home gold in the writing category: The Lavender Hill Mob, The Red Balloon (the only short film to win something other than Short Film), Chinatown, The Crying Game, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, L.A. Confidential, Pulp Fiction—to name but a few. Then again, Crocodile Dundee was nominated.
This year, we see the baffling "adapted screenplay" nomination of Before Midnight, which was mostly improvised, and considered as such because it was an adaptation of characters used in the original movie. What? Will Steve Coogan join fellow actors Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck as yet another actor who wins thanks to his writing chops (for Philomena?) No. I’m seeing 12 Years a Slave here over The Wolf of Wall Street (no chance), Captain Phillips (ditto), Philomena (the nomination is its award), and Midnight. --Peter Schilling Jr
Nominees: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight; Billy Ray, Captain Phillips; Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope, Philomena; John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave; Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Simply put, the screenwriting awards are where the weird movies hang out. Between adapted and original screenplay, this is the Oscar where great and quirky filmmakers have a home. Look at the list: Orson Welles won his only Oscar here, as did Pedro Almodóvar, Preston Sturges, and Mel Brooks. “Cool” movies that didn’t stand a chance anywhere else take home gold in the writing category: The Lavender Hill Mob, The Red Balloon (the only short film to win something other than Short Film), Chinatown, The Crying Game, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, L.A. Confidential, Pulp Fiction—to name but a few. Then again, Crocodile Dundee was nominated.
This year, we see the baffling "adapted screenplay" nomination of Before Midnight, which was mostly improvised, and considered as such because it was an adaptation of characters used in the original movie. What? Will Steve Coogan join fellow actors Emma Thompson, Billy Bob Thornton, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck as yet another actor who wins thanks to his writing chops (for Philomena?) No. I’m seeing 12 Years a Slave here over The Wolf of Wall Street (no chance), Captain Phillips (ditto), Philomena (the nomination is its award), and Midnight. --Peter Schilling Jr
| Will Win | Should Win | Snubbed |
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club; Spike Jonze, Her; Bob Nelson, Nebraska
The script for American Hustle is a bloated calamity on which several excellent actors’ considerable powers were wasted. Nonetheless, it seems most likely to take home the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, if only because it’s just more suited to the Academy’s norms than any other contender. Blue Jasmine is surely out of consideration, given the resurgent controversy surrounding Woody Allen. Dallas Buyers Club is cleverly understated, but it devolves into a rote biopic, presenting its protagonist’s life events as if going down a checklist while making little effort to establish a real sense of the passage of time. And Nebraska may be too quietly odd for serious consideration. Director Spike Jonze’s screenplay for Her is such a strange and personal piece of work that it, too, seems unlikely to prevail. In my estimation, however, it’s the finest piece of work here, wildly inventive yet humane and compassionate, even as it gently prods at its own aura of sincerity in myriad ways. And again, even though I fully understand why it falls outside of the Academy’s middlebrow purview, I still find myself wishing the heady pop-culture fantasia Spring Breakers had been given greater consideration. --Peter Valelly
Nominees: Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club; Spike Jonze, Her; Bob Nelson, Nebraska
The script for American Hustle is a bloated calamity on which several excellent actors’ considerable powers were wasted. Nonetheless, it seems most likely to take home the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, if only because it’s just more suited to the Academy’s norms than any other contender. Blue Jasmine is surely out of consideration, given the resurgent controversy surrounding Woody Allen. Dallas Buyers Club is cleverly understated, but it devolves into a rote biopic, presenting its protagonist’s life events as if going down a checklist while making little effort to establish a real sense of the passage of time. And Nebraska may be too quietly odd for serious consideration. Director Spike Jonze’s screenplay for Her is such a strange and personal piece of work that it, too, seems unlikely to prevail. In my estimation, however, it’s the finest piece of work here, wildly inventive yet humane and compassionate, even as it gently prods at its own aura of sincerity in myriad ways. And again, even though I fully understand why it falls outside of the Academy’s middlebrow purview, I still find myself wishing the heady pop-culture fantasia Spring Breakers had been given greater consideration. --Peter Valelly
| Will Win | Should Win | Snubbed |
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